From Partner to Threat: Israel’s Shift in the Gulf

Israel signed the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates in 2020, a deal designed to reframe the Middle East peace process, centered on establishing a Palestinian state and recognizing Israel as part of the region. That agreement paved the way for economic initiatives, including a comprehensive partnership with the UAE and the IMEC project. But the strategic landscape has shifted. The ongoing war in Gaza, with its staggering humanitarian toll condemned worldwide, coupled with expanding settlements in the West Bank, has eroded the foundation of this partnership.
Until September 9, Israeli military strikes targeted Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen—countries explained away by references to Hezbollah, the Assad regime, Iranian proxies, or Houthi attacks on Israeli-linked shipping. On that day, however, Israel struck a sovereign Gulf state that had committed no aggression: Qatar, a mediator hosting Israeli and American delegations at the request of President Trump and before him President Biden. The attack reframed Gulf-Israeli relations. The question is no longer how to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia or Syria, but how Gulf states can shield themselves from Israeli action, carried out under an “open domain” doctrine that allows Israel to strike any country, at any time, for any reason—even in defiance of international law and the U.N. Charter.
The more alarming issue is not the targeting of Hamas leaders per se, but Washington’s absence in deterring such an operation against a strategic ally in the heart of the Gulf. The precedent is clear: in Trump’s first term, Iranian proxies attacked Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. Washington offered no direct support, even withdrawing Patriot batteries after the strikes. That failure forced Gulf capitals to adopt a fundamentally different strategy—seeking dialogue with Iran rather than relying on U.S. guarantees, a path many in Washington could see as clashing with America’s pressure campaign on Tehran and its broader competition with Russia and China.
The outcome is predictable: if Washington leaves such events unchecked, Gulf states will move collectively to address the danger posed by Israel’s actions. Whether or not Trump was shocked, angered, or privately warned Qatari officials after being briefed by the Israelis, the reality remains—Qatar was attacked not by Iran, once the region’s presumed threat, but by a U.S. ally, a CENTCOM partner.
Trump, aware of the trust deficit, denied U.S. knowledge or involvement and instructed his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, to negotiate a defense cooperation pact with Qatar, pledging that such an incident would not be repeated. His message: Israel’s strike should not be seen as the beginning of routine targeting of Doha. But will Gulf states, along with Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan—all engaged in mediation over Gaza, Iran’s nuclear program, or the Yemen conflict—accept a phone call assurance that they will not be blindsided by Israel’s hard-right impulses?
The problem is that even Trump seems unwilling or unable to curb Israel’s sudden and politically driven decisions. The risk is clear: further escalations against U.S. allies and a sharp decline in confidence in Washington’s leadership role in Gulf security. This stands in stark contrast to Trump’s pledges during his Gulf tour and undermines America’s strategic narrative.
If Washington sees China’s rise as the chief challenge to its global primacy, then honoring alliances and keeping commitments is its most valuable asset. That principle has now been undercut by Israel, breaking the golden rule of alliances: do not attack your partners. The implications extend beyond Israel to America itself, given Washington’s unique influence over Tel Aviv and Trump’s personal leverage with Prime Minister Netanyahu.
Today, Gulf leaders are holding urgent diplomatic consultations—not only to back Qatar’s sovereignty but also to craft a long-term strategy to prevent such strikes from being normalized. Washington faces a choice: take immediate steps to repair trust and rein in Israel, or face the consequences of unchecked Israeli actions that serve neither U.S. nor Israeli interests, and destabilize allies across the region.
The only way forward is to recognize these actions as a crisis and to return to diplomacy, not erode it; to rebuild trust, not dismantle peace. Lasting stability in the Middle East will not come through unilateral strikes and perpetual hostilities, but through negotiations, agreements, and the pursuit of peace as the true strategic path to prosperity.